- Written by Lance Roberts | Monday, June 06, 2011
Our commitment to you: User data and contact information obtained by Streettalk Live will never be sold to any third party.
We believe that it is very important for you to be fully informed as to all the potential things that could happen to you and your money when you invest in the financial markets and financial instruments of any kind. This document will hopefully cover all of the potential risks, conflicts, situations and events that could cause a devastating loss to your investment capital. If you do not understand that this can happen to you then you should not invest with Streettalk Advisors, LLC or anyone else.
It is our belief that by being fully informed of all of the possible negative events that could occur, you can communicate better with us to construct an allocation that is best suited to your individual risk tolerance. Too often individuals take on more risk in their portfolios than they truly understand, so we provide this document to help you be better informed during your decision making process.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC works with you on a best efforts basis. We can offer you no more than that. However, that is precisely what we will give to you – our very best effort to help you achieve your financial goals and objectives. There is a possibility that we will fail in our endeavor – you should be aware of this. However, such failure will not be for the lack of our efforts. We may make mistakes, our investment strategy may not work as expected, or the markets as a whole may fail – but you will have the very best effort from us working for you.
WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY RISKS?
This is nothing more than all the things that can cause losses of your investment capital.
The accepted regulatory statement is that “Past performance may not be indicative of future results.” While on the surface this seems fairly obvious for most investors, it is probably the most overlooked and glossed over disclosure statement there is. Most individuals consistently enter into investments with the assumption that because it has done well in the past it will do so again in the future. However, the reality is that this is rarely the case.
Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or purchased by an advisor), or product made reference to directly or indirectly by any party will be profitable or equal to the corresponding indicated performance levels from the past.
Types of Risks
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. No client or prospective client should assume that any information presented serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from the advisor or any other investment professional. While most people know there is “risk” in investing – they do not often relate it to large losses of their principal which can happen.
The bottom line is “What you don't know can hurt you.”
Understand the Various Risks Involved
Barron’s Finance and Investment Handbook defines risk as the "measurable possibility of losing or not gaining value." The fear of losing money is probably one reason why people may choose conservative investments, even for long-term savings. While investment risk does refer to the general risk of loss, it can be broken down into more specific classifications.
All investments contain some measure of risk, from the high risks attendant to investing in small, unproven companies to the risk of price fluctuations in investments issued by the U.S. Treasury or banks based on interest rate changes.
Market Risk. Also known as systematic risk, market risk is the likelihood that the value of a security will move in tandem with its overall market. For example, if the stock market is experiencing a decline, the stock mutual funds in your portfolio may decline as well. This includes stocks, mutual funds, exchange traded funds, hedge funds or private equity investments.
In addition to the above fundamental factors, equity prices are affected by investors’ perceptions of how the company, the industry, and/or the U.S. and world economies will perform. In any short period of time, perceptions can vary materially from reality. As a result, stock prices of companies with excellent results and fundamentals can decrease materially for substantial periods of time, e.g., in a bear market. In short, investments are subject to the impressions of others. Some corporate investments that exhibit good long-term economic results may perform well over an extended period of time. However, a company with similar fundamentals may lose 100% of its value due to an economic downturn or some other catastrophic event that cannot be predicted.
Interest-Rate Risk. While this is most often associated with fixed-income investments, this is the risk that the price of a bond or the price of a bond fund will fall with rising interest rates. However, interest rate risk can also affect preferred stocks, real estate, credit markets, private notes, etc. and, if interest rates rise enough can also cause systemic market risk affecting equity investments as well.
Duration Risk. Investment risk also involves the concept of duration. Fixed interest rate obligations vary in price as interest rates change during the period preceding maturity. Longer-term CDs are subject to the same risk. As interest rates rise, fixed income securities’ prices generally fall to provide the market rate of return. Conversely, falling interest rates may imply higher prices. While there are generally secondary markets for longer-term bonds and CDs, those markets can be illiquid and involve high spreads between the bid and ask prices, reflecting the infrequency of trading and the attendant risks to a market maker of finding a buyer at the appropriate price. Because of the infrequent transactions in fixed income securities, many of the valuations on your statements could be the last (“old”) trade prices, costs or former estimates of values – not bid prices – and may not be reflective of what you might receive at the time of sale. Always consult your Advisor for a current bid or ask quote. Fundamental factors that might influence the issuer’s ability to pay also affect prices. If the debt instrument is subject to changes in interest rates by its terms, that can also negatively impact market price.
Credit Risk. Credit Risk comes into play with bonds and bond funds. It refers to a bond issuer’s ability to repay its debt to the debt holder as promised when the bond matures. Bonds and bond funds are given credit ratings by such agencies as Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. In general, the higher the rating, the lower the credit risk. “Junk bonds”, which generally have the lowest ratings, are among the riskiest in terms of credit. People who invest in them therefore typically seek higher yields to compensate for the higher credit risk. Other factors that can cause credit risks are severe economic shocks, inflationary pressures, interest rate increases and declining equity markets.
All but the most sophisticated and experienced investors should avoid purchasing significant amounts of fixed income securities that are unrated or rated below “BBB,” including high-yield mutual funds. Although yields are normally higher to reflect the increased risk, issuers may fail to pay interest or be unable to make required principal payments resulting in a loss of capital or a delay in the receipt of funds. Generally, you should limit purchases of such securities, if any, to a modest amount of your portfolio and consider them equity alternatives.
Inflation Risk. The risk that the value of your portfolio will be eroded by a decline in the purchasing power of your savings as a result of inflation is known as inflation risk. Inflation risk needs to be considered when evaluating conservative investments, such as bonds, bond funds, and money market funds as long-term investments. While your investment may post gains over time, it may actually be losing value if it does not at least keep pace with the rate of inflation. Inflation risks can also ultimately cause a rise in interest rates causing losses in fixed income investments as well as declines in equity prices.
Liquidation Risk. Investment risk also relates to the type of security and its priority in the order of liquidation. Equity investments, i.e., common stocks, are most susceptible to the risk of total and complete loss if a company’s fortunes deteriorate.
International Risk. While it is often appropriate for an investor to incorporate foreign securities in a portfolio, these investments can be volatile and are subject to many additional risk factors including currency fluctuations, possible political and economic instability, and different financial accounting standards. Generally, foreign securities are best purchased in a professionally managed mutual fund or asset management portfolio to achieve broader diversification.
Psychological Risk. Market prices are a function of human emotions, as well as rationally determined supply and demand. Thus, even when the fundamental investment characteristics are sound, individual securities or general market prices can decline, often for protracted periods of time due to investors’ psychological fear or “panic selling”.
Other Risks. Risk is not just in investing. It is in every aspect of your life be it financial, personal or environmental. There are risks associated with the operation of any individual business, owning your own home, buying rental property, collecting trading cards or purchasing classic automobiles in hopes of selling them at a higher price in the future. It is possible that all of these investments could lose money over time.
Other risks may also transcend the individual company and relate to the health of the industry and the world economy. Furthermore, reasonable investment objectives can be frustrated by factors outside of anyone’s control such as war, acts of God, economic collapse and geo-political upheavals. It is entirely feasible that an economic collapse of magnitude, random acts of God, and collapse of a country’s currency or a world war could cause investments on a global scale to go to zero. These are uncontrollable and potentially unforeseeable investment risks.
As you can see there are many types of risks that need to be controlled. If the markets are subjected to rising interest rates and inflationary pressures – losses can and most likely will occur in equity related investments. Risk is almost never isolated to itself so it is important to understand the many intertwined risks associated with investing money. There is a high degree of probability that you will lose some, if not all, of your investment capital at times.
While the Streettalk Advisors, LLC will use it best efforts, tools and techniques to evaluate and control the risk / reward relationship during the management of your portfolio, we do not have a prescient ability. Therefore, sometimes our investment strategies may not yield the expected results because of the complex nature of the risks described above.
However, our primary goal is the conservation of your principal investment. This DOES NOT mean you will NOT lose money. It does mean that we will do our best to invest your portfolio within your stated objectives and guidelines and reduce investment risk where we are able to do so.
Since we do not share directly in the profits of successful investments, the client necessarily bears the risk of loss from unsuccessful investing. Investing your money is a very serious endeavor and fraught with much more risk than the media or press gives it. While offering prospectively good returns merits your attention to the decision-making process, this should not be your determining factor. Investors should remember that the higher the potential reward, the greater the potential risk of an investment.
LACK OF BEING PRESCIENT
Streettalk Advisors, LLC works on a best efforts basis. We are not prescient. We cannot, nor do we imply, that we can predict the future. Investing in the market is a speculation at best and the outcome of such investments cannot be guaranteed, calculated or implied with any degree of certainty. Streettalk Advisors, LLC wants to make sure that you fully understand that no such warranties or representations have been, or will be made, either now or in the future. The only thing we know for sure is that predicting the future is predictably uncertain.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC works very hard to do the right thing for you based on your needs and desires. That is all we can do, no more, no less. We can assure you that we will work very hard to do our best for you, but we do not have a crystal ball. Therefore, it is very likely that sometimes you will lose money on some investments, not make as much as you would like at other times, and may do better than expected the rest of the time. But we cannot guarantee, imply or predict the future.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
A conflict of interest is when a person, entity or organization could possibly be influenced, due to financial remuneration, personal gain or some other benefit, to act in a manner that might be inequitable between the parties involved in a specific relationship.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC is a for profit business. While we would love to be able to work for free and provide advice simply out of the passion that we have for what we do, we all have bills to pay, families to support and children to send to school.
While Streettalk Advisors, LLC has always prided itself on doing what is best for our clients, it is important for you to understand that we are in this business to make a profit. Since we charge a set percentage fee for our services it is important for us to try and keep the asset base that we bill on from being reduced during market declines. It is also important for us to make it grow as well so our percentage billing grows along with it. As such this effectively puts Streettalk Advisors, LLC in alignment with your best interest as well. This means our fees grow when your account grows and shrinks if your portfolio shrinks, whether through withdrawals or market losses.
The members of Streettalk Advisors, LLC also have ownership in Streettalk Insurance Agency, LLC. As such, if you decide through consultation that an insurance policy of some type might be in your best interest and you decide to buy it through Streettalk Insurance Agency, LLC, there is compensation paid to the members of Streettalk Advisors, LLC on the purchase of that product. This compensation can be larger than what we charge to manage an investment portfolio and therefore Streettalk Advisors, LLC could be incented to advise you that insurance products are in your best interest. As such there exists a conflict of interest that you need to be aware of.
If you do not understand this conflict of interest then we highly suggest that you do not purchase any insurance based products until such time as you are comfortable that the advice you are receiving is truly in your personal best interest.
Since Streettalk Advisors, LLC manages accounts on an individualized basis, returns for each account can vary - in some cases by a wide margin. Therefore, any performance illustrations used for illustrative or educational purposes are purely hypothetical in nature. Such presentations could be based on how a portfolio structured similar to your personal needs would have performed in the past for educational or informational purposes, but no implication should be made that you would have similar performance in the future.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC will provide you with the performance analysis of your personal accounts once they are under the management control of Streettalk Advisors, LLC and the returns will reflect solely those of your personal portfolio.
Performance analysis or comparisons could be based upon a model portfolio, a set of actual portfolios, or completely hypothetical in nature. Analysis of performance on a historical basis is typically used as an educational and informational tool so that you can make a better informed decision about how your portfolio will most likely be handled by Streettalk Advisors, LLC. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.
There should be no interpretation that there is any implied or explicit guarantee of some potential outcome relating to the performance or handling of such account and in no regard do we have the capability or foresight to provide any such guarantee.
As stated previously Streettalk Advisors, LLC is a for-profit business. While this may seem obvious it is very important that you understand how and in what ways we are compensated.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC charges an annual fee, billed quarterly in arrears, to manage your portfolio. The fee is billed directly to your account at the end of each quarter. The maximum fees that we are allowed to charge is spelled out in the ADV Part II / Schedule F that you are given at the time of your account opening. However, we can and do generally charge less for our services which will be fully disclosed to you both within your investment advisory agreement and before you open your account.
Furthermore, you are responsible for any fees and expenses charged to your account by your selected custodian. (The custodian is the broker/dealer that holds your account) These can be trading fees, prime brokerage fees, custodial fees, bank charges of varying types, transmittal fees, termination fees, transfer fees, etc. These fees are all disclosed on your statement from your selected custodian when they are assessed. Streettalk Advisors, LLC does not receive any of the fees charged by your custodian. These fees and charges are solely between you and your account custodian.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC and/or its members may or may not also receive compensation from placement fees, investment banking fees, insurance premiums, or performance fees. But in such an event, any investment from which Streettalk Advisors, LLC receives any type of compensation is excluded from the asset billing value of your account.
We also maintain the right to reduce your fees at any time without notice, waive fees if we choose, or just not bill you at all if we decide. We can increase your fees only with at least a 30 day written notice to you.
Before you invest in anything it is important that you fully understand any and all fees associated with such an investment and how Streettalk Advisors, LLC may or may not be compensated for such an investment. Streettalk Advisors, LLC works with you on a best efforts basis to build a portfolio of investments that will hopefully meet your investment goals. We cannot guarantee that such goals will ever be met, but we will do our very best job possible.
OTHER POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
It is also important for you to understand that the members of Streettalk Advisors, LLC may have a variety of other potential conflicts of interest. The members of Streettalk Advisors, LLC in most cases invest alongside of our clients, as we believe that if an investment is good enough for you it should be good enough for us. However, such investment also poses the risk of a potential conflict of interest.
Furthermore, the members of Streettalk Advisors, LLC may have holdings in outside businesses, real estate, or other financial assets that might pose a potential conflict of interest with you. While Streettalk Advisors, LLC works very hard to ensure that such a potential conflict of interest does not affect the decisions made in conjunction with you in regards to your investment portfolio, there is absolutely no way that we can guarantee or imply that such a conflict of interest does not exist. We make every effort to disclose any potential conflicts of interest to you.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC is a Registered Investment Advisory firm regulated by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), and its representatives are also registered as required. Streettalk Advisors, LLC does not render or offer to render personalized investment advice or financial planning advice through our web site. This site is limited to providing you with general information on our services and philosophy and provides a way for you to contact our firm.
Advice can only be rendered after the following conditions are met:
- Registration of the advisor with the Securities & Exchange Commission as a Registered Investment Adviser if the advisor has more than $25,000,000 or more under management.
- Delivery of a disclosure statement by the advisor to prospective client.
- Execution of an Investment Advisory and/or Financial Planning agreement between the client and the advisor.
STREETTALKLIVE.COM / STREETTALKADVISORS.COM
This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Streettalk Advisors, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained on this website should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Streettalk Advisors, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this website.
DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY
The information on this site is provided "AS IS". Streettalk Advisors, LLC does not warrant the accuracy of the materials provided herein, either expressly or impliedly, for any particular purpose and expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Streettalk Advisors, LLC will not be responsible for any loss or damage that could result from interception by third parties of any information made available to you via this site. Although the information provided to you on this site is obtained or compiled from sources we believe to be reliable, Streettalk Advisors, LLC cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available to you for any particular purpose.
COPYRIGHT OR OTHER NOTICES
If you download any information or software from this site, you agree that you will not copy it or remove or obscure any copyright or other notices or legends contained in any such information.
USE OF LINKS
Should the viewer leave this site via a link contained herein and view content that is not provided by Streettalk Advisors, LLC, the viewer does so at its own risk. The content to which you link will not have been developed, checked for accuracy, or otherwise reviewed by Streettalk Advisors, LLC. Streettalk Advisors, LLC is not responsible for damages or losses caused by any delays, defects or omissions that may exist in the services, information or other content provided in such site, whether actual, alleged, consequential or punitive. Streettalk Advisors, LLC makes no guarantees or representations as to, and shall have no liability for, any electronic content delivered by any third party, including, without limitation, the accuracy, subject matter, quality or timeliness of any electronic content.
All investments have risks so be sure to read all material provided before investing in ANY security or security related product or service.
User data and contact information obtained by Streettalk Advisors, LLC will never be sold to any third party.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC always likes to hear from our valued clients and prospective clients, and we collect the email addresses of users who communicate with us via email or request information via our website. Streettalk Advisors, LLC collects email addresses and other data collected online from current and prospective clients so that we can provide them with the information they've requested, whether from Streettalk Advisors, LLC or from one of our partners.
In certain instances, Streettalk Advisors, LLC uses the services of partner companies who may help us reach prospective clients by collecting email addresses. Please note that these addresses come from people who specifically request information on Streettalk Advisors, LLC via clearly labeled online advertising.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC collects online data from prospective employees via our website. You can be assured that personal information submitted to us will be held confidential and will not be shared with any third parties.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC also sponsors third party email content. In order to receive Streettalk Advisors, LLC's email content through a third party, you would have had to previously subscribed to a particular service or "opted-in" to receive relevant promotional content from advertising partners. As advertisers, we do not gain access to users' contact information—this information is kept confidential—nor does Streettalk Advisors, LLC supply additional users from our own internal database. Rather, the respective online publisher distributes content on our behalf.
If you have received Streettalk Advisors, LLC's email content through a third party, you must unsubscribe or "opt-out" through the respective publisher. The only way to avoid receiving promotional offers like these in the future (from Streettalk Advisors, LLC or other companies) is by going directly to the respective publisher and unsubscribing from their list.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC may elect to use online advertising from time to time. If this occurs such online advertising will be in full compliance with Internet, advertising and finance industry standards and regulations. The advertising content could be integrated and delivered with online publisher's primary content in a variety of different formats; some ads might be embedded in the website (e.g. banner) while others might be delivered by an independent browser window (e.g. pop-up).
The delivery of such pop-up and pop-under ads (and frequency thereof) is ultimately controlled by the respective online publisher. Most likely we would be unable to restrict the delivery of our popup advertisements to individual users. Typically, pop-ups are "frequency capped" so users should only receive one pop-up ad per site session (based on the respective publisher's ad serving policy). However, this functionality will NOT work if you have disabled "cookies" in your browser.
The information that might be collected through online advertising would be anonymous and not personally identifiable. It would not contain your name, address, telephone number, or email address. To best serve users with offers that are of relevance, Streettalk Advisors, LLC may form relationships with companies that place ads on third party publishers' websites. In addition, these companies may track advertisings that are placed within certain email newsletters. As a result of users visiting its website, ad server companies may collect information about users such as domain type, IP address, and clickstream data. Please note that this information is not individually identifiable.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC may use pixels, or transparent GIF files, to help manage online advertising. These GIF files would most likely be provided by the ad management partner. These files enable the ad serving system to recognize a unique cookie on your Web browser, which in turn enables us to learn which advertisements bring users to our website. The cookie was placed by us, or by another advertiser who also works with our ad management partner.
With cookies, the information we collect is anonymous and not personally identifiable. It does not contain your name, address, telephone number, or email address.
A cookie is a small data file containing information such as a link that a user clicked on, which is written to the user's hard drive by a web server and used to track the pages visited. They do not contain user passwords. The individual information gathered in this manner is used for internal purposes only, such as customizing content. We also use the information on an aggregate basis to track the usage of our website and to analyze traffic patterns.
Certain partner organizations review aggregate cookie and email data in order to help Streettalk Advisors, LLC get a better understanding of the users visiting its website. These companies do NOT have access to individual user information. The cumulative data they maintain for Streettalk Advisors, LLC is expressly NOT SHARED with other organizations for commercial purposes. User data and contact information obtained by Streettalk Advisors, LLC will never be sold to any third party.
General Privacy Notice for Clients of Streettalk Advisors, LLC
Streettalk Advisors, LLC collects nonpublic information about users from the following sources:
- Information received on applications or other forms;
- Information provided verbally
- Information about transactions or online behavior with Streettalk Advisors, LLC or other publishers
Streettalk Advisors, LLC does not disclose any personal information about its clients or non-clients without explicit authorization from the respective party, except as permitted by law or in response to inquires from governmental authorities.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC restricts access to personal and account information to those personnel who need to know that information to conduct business. Streettalk Advisors, LLC may also disclose that information to unaffiliated third parties (such as to brokers or custodians) only as permitted by law and only as needed for Streettalk Advisors, LLC to provide agreed services to clients.
From time to time, Streettalk Advisors, LLC may use data for new, unanticipated uses not previously disclosed in our privacy notice. If its information practices change at some time in the future Streettalk Advisors, LLC will post the policy changes to its website to notify users of these changes and provide the ability to "opt-out" or unsubscribe from these new uses. If users are concerned about how information is used, they should check back to this location periodically.
Updating or Correcting Personal Information
Upon request, Streettalk Advisors, LLC will provide site visitors with access to respective contact information (e.g., name, address, phone number) and the ability to have inaccuracies corrected in the database. To access this information, please email email@example.com.
Removal from the Streettalk Advisors, LLC Database
If contact information is willingly provided to Streettalk Advisors, LLC by mail, phone, email, online, or otherwise, in response to our marketing activities, individuals may receive subsequent periodic information from Streettalk Advisors, LLC on new products and services or upcoming events. If individuals do not wish to receive such information, please let Streettalk Advisors, LLC know by sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org, or by writing to the following address:
Streettalk Advisors, LLC
800 Town & Country Blvd.
Houston, TX 77024
Please provide Streettalk Advisors, LLC with the exact name and address as it was originally provided. We will be happy to remove your name from our database and will do everything possible to honor your request for removal.
To unsubscribe from Streettalk Advisors, LLC email communications, send an email to email@example.com. Please put "UNSUBSCRIBE" in the subject field and include the email address where you received the content, along with any additional email addresses you would like suppressed. We will do our best to prevent you from receiving our email content in the future.
Streettalk with Lance Roberts, presented on KSEV 700 in Houston, is for entertainment purposes only. Any and all information presented therein is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation, or an offer, to sell securities or advisory services. All opinions given are those of the Streettalk Advisors, LLC and its guests, and do not necessarily reflect those of the KSEV 700, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Fidelity Investments or FolioFN, or their respective management.
Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Fidelity Investments and FolioFN are broker / dealers registered with one or more regulatory agencies such as the SEC, NYSE, FINRA and/or various states as required by law. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation, or an offer, to sell securities or advisory services. Such solicitation or offer can only be made in states where Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., Fidelity Investments and / or FolioFN are registered and no new account will be accepted unless, and until, all local regulations have been satisfied.
We would like to work with you and we will do our best for you. If, after reading this, you still want to work with us – welcome to the Streettalk Advisor family.
Streettalk Advisors, LLC
I recently had a great opportunity to visit with my friend Mike Iscovitz, Fox26 in Houston, about the end of the "debt ceiling debate/government shutdown" and what it would likely mean for investors going into the end of the year.
I was filling in for "The Edd Hendee" show on KSEV at the time and Fox26 was kind enough to come down to the station to shoot the interview.
With the debt ceiling debate behind us, at least for the next three months, I suggested that the markets are likely to rise into the end of the year due to the ongoing impact of the Federal Reserve stimulus. That stimulus, combined with the seasonally strong time of year for the markets and few remaining headwinds at the moment, certainly makes our target of 1800 on the S&P 500 index very viable.
Of course, what happens with the debt ceiling the next time around is anyone's guess.
- 10 Investment Rules To Live By
- "Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?
- What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Bernanke Caught In It?
- Reiterating Bond "Buy" - 35 Years Of History Confirms
- 4 Tools Of Corporate Profitability & The Economic Consequences
- Evaluating 3 Bullish Arguments
- The Great "American" Divide
- 5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should Answer
- The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
- Why You Can't Beat The Index
- There Is No Asset Bubble?
- Market And Investing Wisdoms
- Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rules
- 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few Years Away
- Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prosperity
- 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement Dream
- Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
daily exchange archives
- ► 2013 (274)
- ► December (6)
- ► November (23)
- • 5 Things To Ponder Over Thanksgiving
- • 3 Myth's About Rising Interest Rates
- • 30% Up Years: The Case For "Cashing In"
- • 5 Things To Ponder This Weekend:
- • QE's Economic Miss & Future Valuation Overs...
- • Bernanke/Yellen To Drive Stocks 30% Higher
- • Employment Data Faked For Political Gain
- • Analyzing Earnings As Of Q3 2013
- • Summers' IMF Presentation States Nothing Ne...
- • 6 Things To Ponder This Weekend: Market Bub...
- • Yellen Promises More. Evidence Suggests Le...
- • Too Much Bubble Talk
- • Confessions Of A Quantitative Easer
- • NFIB: Optimism Fades
- • The Market In Pictures
- • Q3 GDP - An Inventory Restocking Story
- • LEI - The Fed May Be Skewing The Data
- • 5+1 Things To Ponder This Weekend (11/08/13...
- • Why The Fed Likely Won't Taper...Anytime So...
- • White Paper: Bond Strategies For A Rising ...
- • Economy In Pictures (Update: 11/4/13)
- • 4 Things To Ponder This Weekend (11/1/13)
- • No Joe, There Is Nothing Weird With Jobs Da...
- ► October (28)
- • Using ADP To Estimate 153k In October BLS R...
- • Larry Summers Admits The Fed Is In A Liquid...
- • Retail Sales Sluggish As ACA Approaches
- • Op Ed: Fed Should Get Out Of The Market's W...
- • The "Party Conversation" Indicator
- • 4 Things To Ponder This Weekend (10/25/13)
- • Chart(s) Of The Day: Is A Major Correction ...
- • Are We Entering The 3rd Stage Of The Bull M...
- • Updating The ADP/BLS Estimation Model
- • Fox26: Debt Ceiling Over - Stocks Set To Ri...
- • "Dow 20,000" - A Discussion With Gordon Lon...
- • Some Thoughts On Debts, Deficits & Economic...
- • 4 Things To Ponder This Weekend
- • The Most Dangerous Line Uttered During The ...
- • Market Update: Stocks Surge As Expected On...
- • Retail Sales Slow As Shopping Season Heats ...
- • 5 Things To Ponder This Week
- • The Long Game Of Hiking The Debt Ceiling
- • Stocks Surge As Expected On A "Deal"
- • Yellen, The Fed & The Debt Ceiling Debate
- • Market Update: Stocks Stumble To Support
- • NFIB: Processing Error Removes Optimism
- • 4 Things To Ponder About The Shut Down/Debt...
- • Market Update: Stocks Stumble On Default C...
- • The Rising Risks To The Markets
- • Surveys Vs. Data - Employment Estimate 160k
- • ObamaCare vs. Affordable Care Act
- • Gov't Shuts Down - Markets Rally?
- ► September (24)
- • Fox Business: Time To Take Profits
- • CNBC - Debt Ceiling & Risk To The Markets
- • Historical Performance During Government Sh...
- • 6 Things To Ponder This Weekend (9/27/13)
- • 10 Reasons The Market Will (Or Won't) Crash
- • Has The Fed Lost All Control?
- • No Strategy Works All The Time
- • Investment Learning From The Law
- • 6 Things To Ponder This Weekend
- • Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs. Reali...
- • The Real Reason For "No Taper"
- • "No Taper" = Market Surge As Shorts Run For...
- • Could Stocks Be Ready To Melt Up?
- • Eurozone Recovery Fades - Will The U.S. Fol...
- • Yellen In, Syria Done, 8 Risks That Remain
- • Why Benchmarking Your Portfolio Is A Losing...
- • The Rise Of The Welfare State
- • NFIB: "Small Business Going Nowhere"
- • Commercial Lending Suggests Weaker Employme...
- • The Only Chart Of Employment That Matters
- • Analyzing Earnings As Of Q2 2013
- • Fox Business: Markets In Correction Mode
- • You Can't Time The Market?
- • Q.E. - The #1 Threat To The Economy
- ► August (24)
- • Corporate Profits & What Siegel Is Missing
- • 2nd Q GDP: A Good News/Bad News Story
- • COTD: Earnings & Profits Per Share Suggest...
- • Deep Thoughts From Howard Marks
- • A History Of Real GDP & Population Growth
- • COTD: The Long View On Interest Rates
- • Long Term Stock Returns Depends On When You...
- • Is Unemployment About To Spike Higher?
- • Is The U.S. In A Recession? Interview With...
- • STA Risk Ratio Gives Warning Signal
- • CFNAI: Updating The Most Important Economic...
- • Will Rising Rates Kill The Stock Market?
- • Cramer's Miss On The Corporate/Economic Rel...
- • Inflation Composite Not Suggesting Stronger...
- • The Fed "Taper" And Market Direction
- • NFIB "Making Lemonade"
- • Are We Re-Tracing A Market Peak?
- • 10 Investment Rules To Live By
- • Ray Dalio: Eurocrisis Ain't Over
- • If Housing Is Booming - Why Do We Need Anot...
- • Why Is The "Smart Money" Selling?
- • July Records Biggest Inflows...Into Cash?
- • Why The Unemployment Rate Is Irrelevant
- • Revisions To PCE May Dash Fed's Hopes
- ► July (23)
- • Post-GDP Revisions Reveals Weaker Economy
- • 3 Risks That Could Cause A Short Term Corre...
- • Is It "The Great Rotation" Or "Bad Behavior...
- • Obama's Economic Report Card
- • "Housing" - Is It Really Recovering?
- • CFNAI: Headline Disguises The Supply/Deman...
- • Is This A 2007 Redux?
- • Chart Of The Day: Coincident To Lagging Rat...
- • Rising Rates Squash Housing Recovery
- • Bernanke: The Only Game In Town
- • Something Amiss With Retail Sales Numbers
- • 16 Thoughts On Investing And Financial Safe...
- • What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Berna...
- • Bernanke's Comments Reverses Recent Sell-Of...
- • NFIB: Some Good, Mostly Not
- • Reiterating Bond "Buy" - 35 Years Of Histor...
- • Consumer Adjusted Oil Prices Hit $120
- • Fox Business: Jobs Report & Where To Inves...
- • The Diminishing Effects Of QE Programs
- • 3 Reasons Why I Expect A Weak June Jobs Rep...
- • Net Bullish Sentiment Drops Sharply
- • Top 100 Most Valued Companies
- • Market Rally: Oversold Bounce In Downtrend
- ► June (28)
- • CPI vs. "Main Street" Inflation
- • Bonds & Stocks: Investors Continue To Make...
- • Personal Income & Spending: Improved But Tr...
- • "Code Blue" For GDP - Paging Dr. Bernanke
- • Economic Data Shows Improvement
- • Fox26: Market Correction & Fed
- • CFNAI: Improved But Still Weak
- • Earnings Season Set To Disappoint
- • 5 Reasons Why Now Is The Time To Buy Bonds
- • Initial "Sell Signal" Is In
- • Deflation: The Fed's Real Worry
- • Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs. Reali...
- • 3 Reasons Stocks May Stumble Despite Fed
- • 3-Pitfalls To Fed's Tapering
- • What Inflation Says About Bonds & The Fed
- • Empire Manufacturing Index: Do Not Look In...
- • Chart Of The Day: Interest Rates Vs. S&P 5...
- • The Economy In Pictures
- • Consumer Confidence Spurs Retail Sales
- • Fox 26: Digging Into The May Jobs Report
- • CNBC: My Take On Employment Data
- • Gallup: Consumer Spending Is Up - Retail Da...
- • NFIB: Optimism Improves But Don't Get Too E...
- • Is The Eurozone Crisis Set To Flare Up?
- • Employment - The Macro Trends
- • 4 Tools Of Corporate Profitability & The Ec...
- • The Truth About Wall Street Analysts & Why ...
- • The Most Important Economic Number
- ► May (26)
- • 3 Reasons For Higher Market Highs
- • Consumer Confidence - Was It Really That Go...
- • Evaluating 3 Bullish Arguments
- • The Fed's Real Worry - A Pick Up In Deflati...
- • Japan - A Few Thoughts On The "Crash"
- • Chart Of The Day: Existing Home Sales
- • Bernanke's Link To "Mother Nature"
- • Five Lessons from Apple's Fall
- • Economic And Employment Composites Indicate...
- • The Great "American" Divide
- • Why Bonds Aren't Dead & The Dollar Will Get...
- • Chart Of The Day: S&P 500 Now At Extremes
- • Fed May Quietly Taper QE Before September
- • 5 Questions That Every Market Bull Should A...
- • Clues To Watch For The End Of QE "Infinity"
- • Should Companies "Twitter" Their Earnings
- • Fox 26: The Disconnect Between The Market ...
- • "Risk On" Rally - Don't Forget The Risk Par...
- • The "Labor Hoarding" Effect
- • Lacy Hunt: Cyclical Hurdles For A Highly Ov...
- • David Rosenberg - The Potemkin Rally
- • Mohamed El-Erian: Putting It All Together
- • A. Gary Shilling - Six Realities In An Age ...
- • Jeff Gundlach - Why Own Bonds At All
- • Niall Ferguson – The Great Degeneration
- • Economic Data Continues To Disappoint
- ► April (23)
- • March Spending Driven By Surge In Services
- • It's A Bit Early To Declare A Winner In The...
- • Durable Goods: Another Straw For The Camel
- • Economic Slowdown More Than A "Soft Patch"
- • Has Real Estate Sales Activity Peaked?
- • STA Economic & Employment Composites Paint ...
- • Random Observations & Rising Risks
- • Fox Business: Market & Investing Debate
- • Goldman Sachs: A Consumption Setback
- • More Evidence That The Economic Peak Is In
- • Gold Crash: What It's Not Telling Us
- • Video - The Potential Impact Of The Obama B...
- • Fox Business: Spring Cleaning Your Portfol...
- • Understanding The AMT
- • S&P 500: Recent Consolidation Allows Push H...
- • NFIB: No Sign Of Economic Improvement
- • What Do Interest Rates Tell Us About The Ec...
- • Economy In Pictures: Have We Seen The Peak?
- • Fox26 - March Unemployment Report
- • The Fallacy Of The Fed Model
- • Chart Of The Day: ISM Composite Index
- • Why You Can't Beat The Index
- • The Great Disconnect: Markets Vs. Economy
- ► March (19)
- • The 2012 Compendium Of Tax Filing Tips
- • Economic Data Shows Underlying Weakness
- • Fox26 - What Should Investors Be Doing Righ...
- • Chart Of The Day: Reality Vs Belief
- • Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs Realit...
- • Fox Business News - The Cyprus Effect
- • The Fed Has Already Imposed A "Cyprus Tax" ...
- • COTD: Risk Ratio Pushing Extremes
- • Fox Business News/Melissa Francis - Is Now ...
- • S&P Hits 1560 Target As Risks Rise
- • Digging Behind The February Retail Sales Re...
- • NFIB: "No Sign Of A Surge In Confidence"
- • The Real February Employment Report - In Pi...
- • What The Markets And Taylor Swift Have In C...
- • Chart Of The Day: Retiree's No Better Off T...
- • Dow At Highs - Buy, Sell or Hold?
- • The Dow - Not Really All Time Highs
- • There Is No Asset Bubble?
- • Personal Incomes & The Decline Of The Ameri...
- ► February (19)
- • Get Ready For The Run To All-Time Highs
- • The Real Story Behind The Bounce In Core Ca...
- • Housing, Confidence & Richmond Fed
- • Economic Recovery And The EOCI Index
- • LEI - Is There A Disconnect?
- • Market And Investing Wisdoms
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold? The Update
- • Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Investing Rule...
- • Global Recession Tugs At U.S. Economy
- • Chart Of The Day: The S&P 500 Wedge Tighten...
- • In Search Of The Economic Recovery
- • Sex, Lies And Money (Video)
- • Why You Should Own Bonds
- • 10 Immutable Laws Of Money
- • Chart Of The Day: Productivity Not Pointing...
- • Economic Indicators Not Reflecting Exuberan...
- • The Next Secular Bull Market Is Still A Few...
- • Fox26 - Stock Market Rally And Buying Tops
- • Seasonal Adjustments Are B.S. - I Can Handl...
- ► January (31)
- • Chart Of The Day: Incomes & The Cliff Effe...
- • Help Wanted Index Pointing To Employment Sl...
- • Was The Election Bought With Taxpayer Dolla...
- • GDP - Digging Into The "Unexpected" Decline
- • Market/Economy - A Few Observations
- • X-Factor Report 1/28/13 - Will The Market E...
- • Is The Consumer Really Deleveraging?
- • LEI - Revisions Show Slower Growth
- • The Visible Hand Of The Fed
- • Chart Of The Day: Economic Policy Uncertai...
- • Chart Of The Day: Richmond Fed Survey
- • The Real Housing Recovery Story
- • Pray The Bond Bubble Doesn't Pop
- • Charts Of The Day: The Economic Recovery S...
- • Bullish Optimism Beginning To Reach Extreme...
- • Getting Started With A Budget
- • Housing, CPI And Why I Only Have A Nickel L...
- • Economic Data - Mixed Bag Of Reports
- • What Are The Odds The Market Will End The Y...
- • Signs Of A Fed Driven Rally
- • Philly Fed Survey - 2012 Revisions Show Muc...
- • Why You Are Powerless Against The Governmen...
- • Consumer Credit - What Deleveraging?
- • NFIB - Higher Taxes Not Included
- • An Argument For The Debt Ceiling
- • Rise Above - Two Outcomes To Debt Ceiling D...
- • Interview W/ Congressman Brady on Fiscal Cl...
- • Heads Or Tails - The 2013 Coin Toss
- • Cliff Deal Charts - Just Charts
- • Cliff Resolved - Deficit Set To Explode
- • Senate "Cliff" Bill Unlikely To Pass House
- ► 2012 (282)
- ► December (19)
- • Fox Business - Investing Ahead Of FIscal Cl...
- • Interview With Baker-Patrick On Impact Of F...
- • Consumer Confidence Composite Turns Down
- • Chart Of The Day: Claims Not Translating I...
- • Chart Of The Day: Retail Sales & Excuses
- • "Sandy Effect" Boosts Economic Data
- • Economic Deluge Chart Book
- • Why Reported Inflation Seems Different Than...
- • Chart Of The Day: Sandy Weighs On Empire I...
- • Sandy Effect Pushes Production Higher
- • Fed Downgrades Economic Outlook
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Warning Ticks Up
- • NFIB: More About The Economy Than The Elect...
- • Client Brief: Dealing With Uncertainty
- • Have We Seen The Peak Of Employment?
- • Consumer Debt - Still A Long Way To Go.
- • ISM Composite - Back To Pre-Crash Levels
- • Thought Experiment: Why Obama Wants The Fis...
- • ISM - Outlook Declines
- ► November (23)
- • Personal Income And Spending Weigh On Econo...
- • Bill Ackman: The Basics Of Stock Market In...
- • Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details
- • Housing Recovery: What Has Been Forgotten
- • The Definition Of Insanity: Republicans
- • CFNAI: Not Seeing The Growth Economists' Pr...
- • Chart Of The Day: LEI -- Leading To Laggin...
- • Be Careful Jumping On Bernanke's Bandwagon
- • Market Bounces Off Support - What Now?
- • Chart Of The Day: Decoupling Has Ended
- • Already Weak Manufacturing Impacted By Sand...
- • Retail Sales - You Can't Blame It All On Sa...
- • Personal Finance Seminar Presentation
- • NFIB - Pre-Election Hopes Of Romney Win
- • America Isn't The Greatest Country Anymore
- • "The Star Spangled Banner Is Stupid"
- • Net Export Prices And Wholesale Trade
- • Trade Deficit - Increase In Exports To Be S...
- • Post-Election Wrap Up: Economy and Investi...
- • The Next Four Years Won't Be As Good As The...
- • Recession Probability - 100%
- • ISM Composite, Employment & Black Helicopte...
- • Economic Data Flood - Weakness Behind The H...
- ► October (25)
- • Market Thoughts: Hurricane, Election & Fis...
- • Debt And Deficits - Killing Economic Prospe...
- • Personal Incomes Offset By Rise In Food & E...
- • GDP: The Warning From Exports
- • New Home Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines...
- • Chart Of The Day: Where Do Your Tax Dollars...
- • Richmond Fed Survey - More Evidence Of Weak...
- • Debt - Driving The Economy Since 1980
- • Reviewing Risk/Reward And Entry Targets
- • Chart Of The Day: LEI Coincident-To-Laggin...
- • Philly Fed Bounces - Internals Weaken
- • Housing Starts and Permits: Euphoria May B...
- • Market Rallies As Expected
- • Retail Sales - Not As Strong As Headlines S...
- • Chart Of The Day: JOLT Survey And The Peak ...
- • Trade Deficit - Recession Risks Increase
- • What Wholesale Trade Can Tell Us About 3Q E...
- • Fox Business - Bull/Bear Market Report
- • NFIB - Small Businesses Don't Agree With BL...
- • Unemployment 7.8% to 22% - Is There A Bette...
- • Why The Real Unemployment Rate Is 16.9%
- • Romney Got It Right On Jobs and Taxes
- • What Is The ADS And Why Is It Signaling A R...
- • 3 Major Risks To The 4th Quarter
- • Have Investors Really Missed Anything?
- ► September (25)
- • Second Recession Horseman Goes Down
- • GDP And Durable Goods - Heading To Recessio...
- • Market Sell Off Pushes Toward Support Level...
- • What To Expect From Post-Election Year Mark...
- • Economic Data Continues To Weaken
- • 4 Keys To Successful Long Term Investing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part II
- • Romney Should Be Fighting For The 47%
- • China: A Love-Hate Relationship
- • QE3 - Mortgage Rates And Housing
- • QE3 And Bernanke's Folly - Part I
- • Fed Announces QE - Initial Thoughts
- • Analyzing The ECRI Recession Call
- • Import Prices and Wholesale Trade - Weaknes...
- • Trade Deficit - Exports A Major Concern
- • NFIB - Good News Beneath The Surface
- • CNBC - The Fed, QE3 and Jobs
- • Employment Report - Worse Than It Looks
- • MarketWatch - 3 Factors Deciding The Next P...
- • ECB - A Program To Nowhere
- • When Good Employment News Is Really Bad New...
- • Draghi To Announce Sterilized Bond Purchase...
- • Productivity Increases And The Employment C...
- • ISM and Construction Spending Show Weakness
- • Stage For EuroCrisis Resurgence Being Set
- ► August (30)
- • The Incredible Lightness Of "Hope"
- • PCE - A Tale Of The Consumer
- • Q2 GDP - Nothing Good Happening Here
- • QE3 Mechanism Is Broken
- • Investing For The Next Recession
- • Pigeons At The Table
- • Durable Goods And New Home Sales
- • Monday Reading List
- • Is It Time To Buy Gold?
- • Chart Of The Day: Confidence Waning
- • To The Contrary - QE-3 Is Not Coming Soon
- • Three Things That Will Influence The Electi...
- • No Recession Now - But When?
- • Do You Feel Lucky? Well Do Ya?
- • The Monday Morning Reading List
- • Thoughts On The Market
- • Chasing Yield Can Be Hazardous To Your Reti...
- • Gold, Dollar & Rates Say No QE
- • NFIB - Dear Administration, Are You Listeni...
- • Everything Needs To Go Right
- • End Of Week Economic Data Roundup
- • Want More Tax Revenue? Increase Jobs Not R...
- • Market "Hope" Rally Overbought
- • Are Investors Really That Bearish?
- • Chart Of The Day: Follow The Money
- • Bullish Data Says No Q.E. Coming
- • BLS - Jobs Increase As Businesses Cut
- • Fed And ECB - No Action As Expected
- • CBNC - ECB and Knight Trading Glitch
- • Economic Reports Confirm Deterioration
- ► July (20)
- • Consumer Spending Points To Weaker Employme...
- • FOMC, ECB and Jobs - A Trifecta Of Potentia...
- • 2nd Quarter GDP - Weaker In All The Wrong P...
- • ECB Spurs Short Covering Rally
- • Major Sell Signal Triggered
- • Richmond Fed - Recession Risks Increase
- • CFNAI And Market Update
- • Thoughts On Long Term Investing
- • LEI, Philly Fed, Housing And The 100 Days O...
- • Corporate Profits Surge At Expense Of Worke...
- • Markets Have Trapped Fed On QE3
- • Will QE 3 Save Us From Recession
- • Consumers Flash Warning Signal
- • Import-Export Prices And Jobless Claims
- • Trade and Mortgage Data - More Evidence Of ...
- • NFIB Weakness And Recession Risks
- • Looking At The Economic Forest
- • Homes: The Case Of M2V And The Elusive Reco...
- • Coming This Fall - The Best Time To Invest
- • Euro Crisis: 366 Days Later
- ► June (25)
- • Consumer Spending Leads To Lower Q2 GDP
- • Q1 GDP - Consumer Weaker As Weather Saves T...
- • Durable Goods - Highly Volatile But Trend T...
- • June Rally Complete - Summer Sell Off Ahead...
- • The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting
- • Negative Economic Trends Clearing Way For Q...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Fed Lowers Economic Outl...
- • No Q.E. As Expected - "Twist" Extended
- • No QE3 Tomorrow - Replay Of 2011 Continues
- • CHART OF THE DAY: JOLT Survey And Peak Emp...
- • Have A State Pension? Don't Count On It.
- • Inflation, Dollar And Interest Rates Open D...
- • Retail Sales In Decline
- • Deflationary Presssures Rising - PPI
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Negative Net Export Pric...
- • NFIB - Shows Flaws In Current Policy Mix
- • Why Spain's Bailout May Spell The End Of Th...
- • Trade - A Wholesale And Int'l Disappointmen...
- • Risks To The Market Rebound
- • Forecasting The Rebound And Bottom
- • St. Bernanke's Fight Against The Deflation ...
- • CHART OF THE DAY: US Best Place To Invest
- • ISM Composite - Economic Weakness Returns
- • TheStreet.Com - Gold Run Not Over
- • The Lie That Is Social Security
- ► May (27)
- • Yahoo! Summer Portfolio Management Ideas
- • Yahoo! Low Interest Rates Hurts Economy
- • Fox Business - Tending Your Portfolio
- • CNBC - Eurozone Slowdown Will Impact US
- • Housing Recovery - Hope and Reality
- • Interview - Southwest Airlines, Facebook an...
- • Durable Goods Disappointing
- • 4-Issues For The Market Ahead
- • Richmond Fed Showing More Weakness
- • Sell Signal Confirmed - Initial Targets Set
- • Risk Ratio Indicating More Correction Comin...
- • Confirmed "Sell Signal" Approaches
- • Industrial Production And The Recovery
- • Composite Inflation Index Declines
- • Real Retail Sales Under Pressure
- • Sex, Money and Largesse - The Hidden Depres...
- • Trade Defict - Confirming Weaker Q1 GDP
- • The Clock Is Ticking On The Next Eurozone C...
- • Initial Sell Signal In - Confirmation Is Li...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still At Recessionary...
- • Economic Trends Don't Paint A Robust Pictur...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Lacy ...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - David Ros...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Dr. Woody...
- • Strategic Investment Conference - Niall Fer...
- • 3 Likely Triggers Of The Next Recession
- • ISM Report Bucking The Trend
- ► April (19)
- • The "Consumption Dysfunction" Continues
- • Q1 GDP - Weaker Than Expected
- • Social Security Has A Real Problem - Employ...
- • Decline In Durable Goods Indicative Of Broa...
- • Impatience Will Lead To Our Demise
- • Market Cracks Support - Correction Gets Ser...
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth Update
- • Philly Fed Points To Weaker Profits Ahead
- • Mother Nature's Bail Out Coming To An End
- • 10 More Years Of Low Returns
- • 5 Mistakes That Will Crush Your Retirement ...
- • Earnings Likely To Be "Better Than Expected...
- • Market Hits Support - Now What?
- • The Return Of Economic Weakness
- • The Correction Has Started
- • The "Real" Employment Report - March 2012
- • Now The Media Is Hooked On QE Crack
- • Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Signs Of Recovery?
- ► March (24)
- • The Consumption Dysfunction
- • WTF! Chart Of The Day
- • An Update On Margin Debt
- • Hyperinflation Isn't A Threat
- • Surprise! Jobs Drive Consumer Confidence
- • Death Of The Gold Bull Market?
- • Housing And The Elusive Recovery
- • LEI - Slower Growth Of The Growth
- • The Long Road Ahead
- • The "Fly" In Ryan's Budget Ointment
- • 1.8 Million Jobs Lost In 2012
- • Why 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive
- • The Stretching Of Limits
- • Rising Costs And Profit Margins
- • Retail Sales - A Lot About Weather
- • Correction: There Has Been No Correction
- • CHART OF THE DAY: Ceridian-UCLA PCI
- • NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken
- • Employment Report And The Market
- • Is The Investing Game Rigged?
- • OIl Prices Will Hurt The Consumer
- • Has The Correction Started?
- • The Immediacy Trap
- • 1st Quarter GDP To Be Much Weaker
- ► February (22)
- • Oil Prices WILL Slow The Economy (Revised)
- • Don't Feed The Animals
- • The Housing Recovery In One Index
- • Consumer Sentiment Responds To Market Rally
- • The Straw That Potentially Breaks The Camel...
- • Media Headlines Will Lead You To Ruin
- • Philly Fed Future Activity Points To Weakne...
- • Housing Headlines Improve - Reality Doesn't
- • The "Real" American Dream
- • Industrial Production - The Revival May Hav...
- • Consumer Confidence Has Everything To Do Wi...
- • NFIB - Optimistic But Still In The Foxhole
- • Financial Stress Composite Rising
- • Trade Data Trends Signal Weakness Ahead
- • Consumer Credit And The American Conundrum
- • Is Now The Time To Jump In?
- • Gold - The Technical Rundown
- • Bringing The NILF Mystery To Light
- • Gallop Points To Weaker Employment Report T...
- • Earning Less - Why The Poor Get Poorer
- • ISM - Misses Expectations
- • ADP Signals Weak Job Report Friday
- ► January (23)
- • Chicago ISM - Has The Recovery Peaked?
- • Home Prices Fall Further
- • PCE Points To Weaker GDP Ahead
- • Q4 GDP - "Prognosis Still Negative"
- • Fed Meeting - Reconciling A Weak Economy
- • Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall
- • IMF Cuts Global Forecast - US Won't Dodge T...
- • Complacency Risk Is High
- • Prices Paid And Coming Earnings Weakness
- • Housing Is Not Affordable
- • Industrial Production Confirming Changes To...
- • Patiently Waiting For The Golden Cross
- • Consumer Sentiment Rises - Still In Recessi...
- • Why QE3 Won't Help "Average Joe"
- • Industrial Production May Be About To Weake...
- • Consumer Spending May Dissapoint
- • NFIB - Small Businesses More Optimistic
- • Markets Throw Off A Buy Signal
- • The Real Employment Situation Report For De...
- • Improvement In Employment - At Least For No...
- • Markets Getting Over Bought / Over Bullish
- • Market Rallies To Resistance - Now What?
- • ISM & Construction Spending - Modest Improv...
- ► December (19)
- ► 2011 (277)
- ► December (22)
- • 2012 Outlook - Anything Other Than The Apoc...
- • Q3 GDP - "Prognosis Negative"
- • The Eurozone Is Saved?
- • Market Rally To Nowhere
- • Housing Starts Up - Patient Still Critical
- • NAHB Housing Market Index
- • A Little Followed Indicator Hints At Recess...
- • Inflation Pressures Rising In The Core
- • Economic Deluge - Economy Shows Some Positi...
- • Is The Gold Run Over?
- • Import Prices Jump - Recession Odds Increas...
- • NFIB - Bounce Off The Bottom
- • No Holiday Cheer In Retail Sales
- • A Million Dollars Ain't What It Used To Be
- • STA RIsk Ratio Turns Up - We've Seen This B...
- • Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up
- • What Are Initial Claims Not Telling Us?
- • Is Consumer Spending Really Surging?
- • Could Gasoline Prices Trigger A Recession
- • Market Rallies Into EU Meeting
- • ISM Composite Index Ticks Up
- • The Real Employment Situation Report
- ► November (29)
- • Economic Data - Headlines Bullish
- • Markets Surge As World Engages In Global Ba...
- • Was That The Consumer's Last Gasp?
- • Housing - The Margin Effect
- • Economic "Run Down" - Weakness Emerges
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • Is Market Warning Of The Next Lehman Event?
- • EOCI Index Improves - Is It All Clear?
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting A Peak In Ea...
- • US Debt To GDP Now 98.9% And Rising
- • Inflation - A Continued Problem For Consume...
- • Economy Shows Tenative Signs Of Improvement
- • Debate - Is US Becoming Japan
- • Presidential And Decennial Cycles - What Ab...
- • Consumer Sentiment Driven By Market Rally
- • Net Export Prices Turn Down
- • What "Average Joe" Really Thinks
- • Blood Bath As Italy Faces Crisis
- • Are Oil Prices Confirming ECRI Recession Ca...
- • Oil Price Spike Update
- • No Joy In NFIB Report
- • Market Vs Economic Cycles And Sector Rotati...
- • Employment - The Good, Bad & Ugly
- • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index - Not Adding Up
- • Productivity Up - Costs Down
- • Fed's Outlook Much Weaker Than Reported
- • Food Stamp Usage Sets New Record
- • Fed Trapped By Inflation
- • Manufacturing Not Showing GDP Strength
- ► October (24)
- • STA Risk Ratio Turns Up
- • Buy Signal Is In - But Move Slowly
- • Recession Still Likely Despite Bump In GDP
- • A Haircut, Boost and Drop
- • New Homes Sales - Glued To The Bottom
- • Consumer Is Key To Next Recession
- • Case-Shiller 20-City Index Flat As HARP Wil...
- • CFNAI - Better But Still Negative
- • Understanding Federal Debt: Point - Counter...
- • Temporary Bounce In Philly Fed Confirmed By...
- • Inflation Rises Along With Housing Hopes
- • Snipe Hunting In The Housing Market
- • Der Spiegel is Der Wrong
- • Inventories, Sentiment and Sales - Behind T...
- • The Empire Is Tarnished
- • A JOLT To The System
- • NFIB and PCI - More Signs Of Weakness
- • 1929-45 Vs Today - Following The Same Path
- • Unemployment Report Worse Than It Looks
- • Bearish Sentiment Abounds
- • ISM Composite Index - Been Here Before
- • Yield Spread Confirming Recession Call
- • Market Breaks Its Neck
- • ISM Manufacturing Index - Backlog Drawdown ...
- ► September (34)
- • 5 Months Down - Time For A Bounce?
- • Economic Trifecta - But No Winners
- • Economy Upticks & Jobless Claims Fall
- • Gallup - Economic Confidence Slides
- • Can Margin Debt Give Us A Clue On Market Di...
- • Euro Tarp - Why It Will Be A Screaming Fail...
- • Consumer Doldrums
- • Chicago Fed National Activity "Slowing Down...
- • End Of Week Technical Wrap Up
- • The Yield Spread Is Lying About The Coming ...
- • Leading Indicators Predict Weaker Economy
- • Why The Fed's "Silver Bullet" Won't Kill Th...
- • Fed Buy's Paltry $ 400 Billion - Need A Hug...
- • Market Weak - Waiting On The Fed
- • Housing Still A Drag
- • Consumer Confidence Remains At Lowest Level...
- • Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Creat...
- • Philly Fed Survey - Predicting Recession
- • CPI Rises - Inflation Hits Home
- • Consumers Tapping Out Savings To Spend
- • PPI - Pushing A Slowdown
- • NFIB Confidence Slides Lower
- • Export Prices Still A Negative For The Econ...
- • The Great American Economic Lie
- • High Yield Spread Signaling Recession
- • The Economy Weakens More
- • Obama's $ 400 Billion For Jobs And Counting
- • Trade Deficit - Points To Possible Uptick I...
- • Another Domino Falls For The Market
- • Corporate Profits Are In Trouble
- • Are Stocks Undervalued?
- • European Markets Down Sharply
- • Jobs - What Jobs?
- • Why Unemployment Is About To Surge
- ► August (38)
- • Market Bounce OR New Bull Market
- • Chicago ISM Confirms Weakness
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses - Again
- • Personal Incomes Still Under Pressure
- • Annotated Bernanke Speech - The Elusive Eco...
- • Corporate Profits - Hinting At Recession
- • GDP - Revised Down
- • The Deficit Spending Trap
- • Will Ben Go For Another Round Of QE?
- • Boomers - Are Going To Be A Real Drag
- • No Job = No New House
- • Beware Of Long Term Investing Advice
- • Technical Market Overview
- • EOCI Index Now At Recession Levels
- • Composite Inflation Index Warning Of Slower...
- • 7 Things That Make Me Worried
- • The Difference Between "WHAT" and "WHEN"
- • Empire Fed Index - 3 Strikes You're Out
- • Rosenberg On The Economy
- • Consumer Confidence Collapses
- • Trade Deficit Points To Sub-1% 2nd Qtr GDP
- • 7 Things My Mom Taught Me About Investing
- • Blood In The Streets - Part II
- • Ceridian UCLA Consumer Pulse - Going Flatli...
- • Market Bounce - Was It Stealth QE3?
- • FOMC Meeting Ends - No Change To Stance
- • NFIB Survey Says...Higher Taxes Won't Work
- • Panic Attack! Markets Extremely Oversold
- • Employment Report Less Than Meets The Eye
- • Market Trashed Again! Panic Hits.
- • Recession Almost A Certainty
- • QE 3 Coming - But Won't Save The Economy
- • Yield Curves & The Fed Model
- • ISM Composite Index - Continues Decline
- • Market Trashed - What Now?
- • Personal Income Under Pressure
- • ISM - Clinging On For Dear Life
- • Debt Deal - A Complete Failure
- ► July (38)
- • We Are All Guessing
- • Dismal Economic Numbers
- • 10 Lessons Learned From Poker
- • STA Risk Ratio - Still On Sell Signal
- • GDP - 2nd Quarter Estimate
- • Consumer Un-Confidence
- • Are We Headed For A Second Recession? Upda...
- • Chicago Fed National Activity Index Confirm...
- • Decline In Profits Leads Index
- • EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness
- • Help Wanted - Not So Much
- • Existing Home Sales - A Resumption Of Decli...
- • Housing Starts - Bouncing Along The Bottom
- • You Can't Have A Jobless Recovery
- • NAHB Housing Index - No Signs Of Life
- • Commentary: A Default Would Devastate D.C.-...
- • Tax Reform -The Overlooked Solution
- • Empire Index - Harbinger Of Bad Things To C...
- • Consumers Believe It's Really A Recession
- • Inflation Index Flashes Warning
- • Bernanke Gives US Congress "The Finger"
- • Retail Sales & Jobless Claims
- • Why The Trade Deficit Is Warning Of Weak GD...
- • QE 3 - "To Infinity And Beyond"
- • No Fear - That's Not A Good Thing
- • More Fed Stimulus - As Expected
- • NFIB - No Jobs For You
- • Why Economists Don't Have A Clue About Jobs
- • Raising Taxes Won't Raise Revenue
- • Why The Jobs Report Is Worse Than It Seems
- • Why Oil Price Spikes "Feel" Worse
- • The Average Investor Doesn't Stand A Chance
- • How To Just Get By On Food Stamps
- • Jobless Still Jobless- Teens Hired For The ...
- • ISM Composite Index Showing Contraction
- • Outperforming The Market By 30% With No Ris...
- • ISM Report - Little To Be Excited About
- • Greenspan - QE Was A Failure
- ► June (38)
- • Market Failed At Resistance - Now What?
- • Full Employment - Hope vs Reality
- • Existing Home Sales Reflect Balance Sheet R...
- • Myths Of Retirement Planning
- • Implications Of Household Debt Deleveraging
- • LEI Warning Of Economic Stumbling Economy
- • Greece Ripple Effects Could Create US Finan...
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Economy Failing Right On Time
- • New Home Starts - It's The Job Market Stupi...
- • Composite Price Index - Pushing Upper Limit...
- • Empire Composite Index Signals Economic Con...
- • PPI - Ratio Pointing To Economic Weakness
- • NFIB Employment Expectations Dispells 5% Ec...
- • Trade Deficit - A Roadmap To Economic Stren...
- • How Far Might A Bounce Go?
- • What Is Really Driving The Weakness In The ...
- • Obama Says He Has No Fear Of A Double Dip
- • NYSE Margin Debt
- • Beranke Speech - A Prelude To QE 3
- • Don't Get Suckered!
- • QE3 - Just A Matter Of Time
- • Job Report Shocker
- • Where's My Bottom
- • STA Risk Ratio Indicator Update - Still Cor...
- • ISM Composite Index Confirmed Market Top
- • Not The American Dream I Was Told About
- • Never Buy Stocks Again? Seriously?
- • Where Is The Confidence?
- • ISM Manufacturing Report Hits The Brakes
- • A Weaker Dollar Equals A Weaker Economy
- • Market Bounce
- • SF Bay Bridge - "Made In China"
- • Consumer Confidence At Recession Levels
- • The Decline Of The American "Saver"
- • Greece Fire - NY Post
- • The Breaking Point
- • Financial Profits Reduce Economic Prosperit...
- ► May (32)
- • Consumer Confidence Falls
- • Slide In Corporate Profits - Part II
- • Personal Incomes Still Feeding The Gas Tank
- • Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market...
- • Economic Surprises - The Wrong Kind
- • New Orders For Durable Goods - Another Nail...
- • STA Buy/Sell Indicator Flashes Sell Signal
- • New Home Sales Not Inspiring
- • STA Economic Output Index Takes A Plunge
- • Debt To GDP And A Sustainable Level
- • The Virtuous Cycle Of The Economy
- • Economy Shifting Into Slower Gear
- • 7 Impossible Trading Rules To Follow
- • Housing Starts Fall - Again
- • Cyclical Bull Markets In Secular Bear Marke...
- • Empire Manufacturing Index
- • More Inflation For Consumers!
- • Headline Inflation Pushing Up
- • Weakness In GDP Continues (X-M)
- • Small Business Optimism Getting Worse!
- • Import Prices Flashing Warning Signal
- • Home Prices Following The Path To Destructi...
- • The Hyperinflation Index
- • Unemployment Rate Climbs To 9.0%
- • The Link Between Productivity & Jobs
- • Commodities Stumble
- • Jobless Claims Jump
- • ISM Composite Index vs S&P 500
- • ADP & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Have A Lo...
- • Gallup: More Than Half Of Americans Still S...
- • "Let Them Eat IPads"
- • Have We Seen The Peak In This Business Cycl...
- ► April (22)
- • Fallacy Of The Falling Dollar
- • 1.8% GDP Not So Great!
- • Bernanke's Folly - High Oil Prices Are Flee...
- • Consumer Confidence - STILL Not So Confiden...
- • Tracking The Next Gasoline Induced Recessio...
- • New Home Sales Tick Up
- • STA Risk Ratio Throwing Off Warning Signal
- • The Philly Fed Survery Says....#&^%@!!
- • Americans Receive MORE In Government Handou...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Reaching Danger Zone
- • Housing Starts Not Starting
- • Pitchfork and Torches For The Rich
- • S&P Downgrades US Credit Outlook To Negativ...
- • Why You Can't Invest For The "Long Term"
- • Jobless Claims & PPI - Not Looking Better
- • Who Pays The Taxes!
- • Retail Sales Confirms Consumer Weakness
- • Gallop Poll Confirms NFIB Index - Economy S...
- • Small Business Still Not Optomistic
- • Trade Deficit Narrows - But Not In A Good W...
- • NYSE Margin Debt Climbs
- • High Commodity Prices Not The Result Of The...
- ► December (22)